2019-20 NBA Predictions. In general, players who come from wealthy countries and who play in higher-quality international leagues start out of the gate faster but do not necessarily show as much improvement following their first few NBA seasons. Date. In fact, they’re worth even more in the RAPM regression.16 Drawn fouls are rated highly by the regression both because they end a possession (often when the opposing team is in a strong position to score) and because they serve as a stand-in for stout overall on-ball defense. One of the cool side effects of overhauling our NBA projections with a new player metric, RAPTOR — the Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On-court/off-court Results — was the need to build historical RAPTOR estimates for players who would show up as comparisons for current stars. Players with small sample sizes and rarely used lineup combinations can also create problems, so RAPM employs various techniques to regress their performance toward the mean. It turns out that there is something vaguely analogous to this in the real NBA! These have a small amount of value also because they (i) reset the shot clock to 14 seconds and (ii) often allow the offense to inbound the ball from an advantageous position, such as along the baseline near the basket, depending on where the foul was committed (empirically, possessions that restart after a nonshooting foul have a fairly high expected value). This data is categorized by on offense, defense, or in total. It should also be an unbiased measure, not overvaluing or undervaluing any particular type of skill relative to its actual value on the court. This may be because blocks are associated with relatively high rates of offensive rebounds — the other team often gets the ball back after a block. Green’s +15.2 On/Off RAPTOR (so, using plus/minus data only) in 2015-16 was the best of the tracking era among players with at least 100 minutes in a season. Adjusted for score effects, they were a better team, in other words. In practice, however, there’s rarely a clean one-to-one correspondence between players at different positions. BPM was designed by fitting a regression model for which the inputs are various traditional statistics (e.g., points, rebounds, etc.) Thus, variables like this were excluded from RAPTOR. The most interesting one is probably awards received in the past three seasons, which is somewhat helpful for projecting out-of-sample performance. You read that right, second-best to win it all. An interesting philosophical question is whether these Approximate RAPTOR ratings are an optimal reflection of which players were the best of their eras given the (somewhat limited) data available to examine their performance — or, rather, since RAPTORs are calibrated using only data since 2013-14, whether they essentially reflect which past players would have been best under modern conditions. This should make intuitive sense: a team is less likely to step off the gas pedal in the postseason when where is more on the line. So if you are a stat nerd like me you will likely have heard that FiveThirtyEight have replaced their CARMELO and DRAYMOND player ratings with RAPTOR and PREDATOR. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. This stat can pick up on some additional defensive value for Avery Bradley or Iman Shumpert types who are pesky, active perimeter defenders. ... What is incredibly surprising—not if you know how who really is the best point guard in the game—FiveThirtyEight’s Raptor … The Complete History Of The NBA. Because pace is partly a function of a team’s coach and system, these ratings were derived from an analysis only of players who switched teams, and seeing which factors were persistent in predicting pace from one team context to the next. UPDATED Oct. 22, 2019 at 10:00 AM. This is the first time all of these information sources have been combined publicly in a single metric. (These are the same adjustments that are made by BPM, so we are again indebted to BPM and Daniel Myers for inspiration. `modern_RAPTOR_by_team.csv` contains RAPTOR data for every player broken out by team, season and season_type since 2014, when NBA player-tracking data first became available. More NBA:2019-20 RAPTOR player ratings Our preseason player … FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR says he is the best offensive player in the league. FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on a variant of Elo ratings, which in turn have roots in ranking chess players. If the Golden State Warriors score 7 adjusted points per 100 possessions more than the league average, for instance, then the Warriors’ players’ offensive RAPTOR ratings should also add up to +7.0, weighted by playing time. Contested defensive rebounds are worth considerably more in RAPTOR than uncontested rebounds. Although there isn’t quite a 1-for-1 tradeoff: Being either the assister or the assistee is better than having nothing to do with the basket. Enhanced defensive rebounds: RAPTOR handles defensive rebounding as it does offensive rebounding. The fivethirtyeight package was featured in The fivethirtyeight R Package: “Tame Data” Principles for Introductory Statistics and Data Science Courses by Kim, Ismay, and Chunn (2018) published in Volume 11, Issue 1 of the journal “Technology Innovations in Statistics Education”. The intuition behind this is as follows: Because 77 percent of rebounds are defensive rebounds, only defensive rebounds on which the offense has a serious shot at the ball (i.e., contested rebounds) have all that much value for a defensive player since his team would probably wind up with the ball anyway. If a player’s “Box” rating is +3.0 and his “On-Off” rating is also +3.0, we’d exepct his overall RAPM to be slightly greater than +3.0, in other words. To be listed, players must have had a minimum of 1000 minutes played between the playoffs and regular season combined. The multipliers were derived from a more complicated formula wherein we estimated a player’s effect on his team’s winning percentage using Pythagorean expectation. While this is a good rule of thumb for players in the middle of their career, it’s too conservative a weighting scheme for very young or very old players. While on-court/off-court ratings are sometimes treated as though they’re the holy grail of NBA statistics, they’re very noisy. For instance, missed free throws produce offensive rebounds only about 10 percent of the time, so defensive rebounds after free throws have very little value since the remaining expected value of a possession is already close to zero. However, we find that there isn’t much value in what the NBA calls “potential assists” that don’t result in baskets or free-throw attempts.7 We do, however, give players credit for …. The program then uses RAPTOR playing time recommendations to estimate how much each player will play at each position given these inputs. The resulting pace impact estimates reflect a combination of essentially an on-court/off-court pace rating — how much, empirically, a team’s pace changed when the player was on or off the floor — plus various statistical inputs that correlate with pace. This data is based on by box score estimate, plus-minus data, or using both box and on-off components. Failure to account for assisted field goals will bias the value of offensive rebounds downward, and some advanced stats such as RPM very likely understate the importance of offensive rebounds for this reason. Actually, two sets of predictions: “RAPTOR” and “ELO”. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. Garnering pole positions in the estimation of the data wizards running the ironically-named RAPTOR-based projection, the Celtics are now deemed to have a 75% chance of getting past their opponents of the East Finals — the Miami Heat — to get to the 2020 NBA Finals. mayweather_mcgregor_tweets. The NBA also keeps track of deferred rebounds: when a player has a chance at the rebound but passes it up to a teammate. Instead, in assigning players to positions for our depth charts, we deliberately draw from multiple sources to make most players eligible at multiple positions. So while the regression specifications that follow might seem complex, there was quite a lot of basketball thinking behind them; it wasn’t just a matter of coming up with the best statistical fit. For instance, after a missed shot, the expected value of a possession was around 0.28 points in 2018-2019 (a 23 percent chance of an offensive rebound times an average of 1.2 points scored conditional on securing the rebound). Format. A couple of fairly obvious observations about these figures: After combining “Box” and “On-Off” ratings, RAPTOR is then adjusted in two ways. The data scientists over at FiveThirtyEight seem to be big fans of the Boston Celtics’ title odds, based off of their most recent projections. How Our RAPTOR Metric Works By Nate Silver. Teams benefit from score effects when behind in the game, conversely; that is, they are more efficient than in a tied game. Defense is more of an uphill battle. We expect that the state of publicly available defensive metrics will improve in future years, and RAPTOR will improve along with them. First, note that the combined value of “Box” and “On-Off” RAPTOR is slightly greater than 100 percent because they provide some nonredundant information. This data is based on by box score estimate, plus-minus data, or using both box and on-off components. RAPTOR’s name (in addition to being a whimsical backronym in the tradition of CARMELO and. Overall, we find that about half of a team’s pace is a result of the players it has on the floor, while the other half reflects the coach and system.25. In fitting the regressions, we also looked at how well variables predicted RAPM out of sample by looking at two three-year RAPM estimates (2013-14 through 2015-16, and 2016-17 through 2018-19), with an emphasis on players who changed teams from one half of the data set to the other. For instance, a team with a 20-point lead would be 4.6 points worse per 100 possessions in the 3rd quarter. Abstract: As statistics and data science instructors, we often seek to use data in our courses that are rich, real, realistic, and relevant. Updated after every game and depth chart revision. However, the deduction for a made free throw is relatively minor (0.19 points). Mediocre players on great teams, such as JaVale McGee on the 2016-17 and 2017-18 Golden State Warriors, can have strong raw offensive and defensive ratings because they play with excellent teammates; it is obviously necessary to adjust for this when calculating McGee’s contribution to the team. FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR says he is the best offensive player in the league. View all posts by nedwardsthro Post navigation. It’s also fairly computationally intensive and can be sensitive to relatively subtle choices about exactly how it’s calculated. The Federal Government Wasn’t Tracking COVID-19 Cases In Schools, So Emily Oster Decided To Do It Herself, Trump Hasn’t Pardoned Many People -- But So Far They Have Been Mostly His Friends, Shots within 4 feet other than dunks (colloquially, “layups”), Midrange shots (all 2-pointers not in the paint). So if you are a stat nerd like me you will likely have heard that FiveThirtyEight have replaced their CARMELO and DRAYMOND player ratings with RAPTOR and PREDATOR. We’ll save that discussion for another time, though, as well as the conversation about how RAPTOR feels about players such as John Stockton (loves) and Patrick Ewing (hates). Data and code behind the articles and graphics at FiveThirtyEight - fivethirtyeight/data And defensive rebounds after shots that produce a high rate of offensive rebounds (such as layups and other shots near the rim) are worth more than rebounds on shots that don’t. In our defensive RAPM regression, a steal is worth 1.49 points on defense. The RAPTOR variables correspond to Points above average per 100 possessions added by player. Adjusting for teammate and opponent strength can be tricky business, however. We give slightly more credit to rebounds that occur (i) in bounds and (ii) not after blocked shots, since these are associated with a higher expected value for the remainder of the possession. In measuring offense, RAPTOR is relatively elegant. array, Here is an executive summary. For instance, 3-point attempts are a good proxy for creating floor spacing or having “gravity” — that is, drawing defenders toward you and therefore giving your teammates more open scoring opportunities. The opponents’ shooting data is quite a valuable indicator of rim protection or 2-point defense, on the other hand. This table contains data behind the story Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA and the interactive The Best NBA Players This Season, According To RAPTOR.. modern_RAPTOR_by_player.csv contains RAPTOR data for every player broken out by season since 2014, when NBA player-tracking data first became available.. modern_RAPTOR_by_team.csv contains RAPTOR data … These estimates were built by figuring out how the limited data kept in earlier eras (box score plus team data and RPM for 2001-2013, and just box score/team data … The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and … Although the list includes a few statistics, most of them fall into one of four major categories: scoring and usage; passing; rebounding; and space creation. 75 percent of lost-ball turnovers, palming turnovers, double dribbles, discontinued dribbles and step-out-of-bounds turnovers. Our score effects adjustment is a little different than some of the other ones we’ve seen. The main exception is that point guards are slightly more valuable than shooting guards in RAPTOR on average, which makes sense to us since the league’s best point guards (think of a player like Curry) often have all the skills that off-guards do, but they also have additional ball-handling and passing abilities that off-guards sometimes lack. In particular, fouls that contribute to the bonus/penalty13 can increase the value of possessions later on in the quarter by making the penalty (which results in free-throw attempts being awarded on nonshooting fouls) more likely to occur. mlb_elo. Overall RAPTOR is a blend of the “Box” and “On-Off” component ratings. In weighting performance over the past three seasons, our projections previously assigned 60 percent of the weight to the most recent season, 30 percent to the second-most-recent season and 10 percent to the third-most-recent one. We find that there is no additional predictive power in using blocks when projecting RAPM, once you’re already accounted for opponents’ field goals.17. fivethirtyeight 0.6.0. Despite this being a relatively noisy process, there is some predictive power (including in out-of-sample regressions) in seeing how many points and rebounds a player’s positional matchups secure. In other words, RAPM doesn’t appear to add much value as compared with computationally simpler approaches to evaluating on-court/off-court ratings. Under game conditions, the players who participated in the 3-point contest hit so-called wide-open 3-pointers at a 44 percent rate instead. This implies that the differences between a team’s overall scoring margin and the sum of its statistical components may actually be due mostly to luck rather than necessarily reflecting any intangible or hard-to-measure skills. Steals do create additional value on offense, but this is covered by the offensive regression. This requires a few tricks that we don’t have to use on current data. fivethirtyeight RAPTOR rankings Neil Paine fivethirtyeight . Relative to the personnel they have on the floor, teams perform substantially worse when they have large leads and substantially better when they trail by significant margins. One important wrinkle is that in summing up individual RAPTOR projections to the team level, we need to account for score effects. Motivation. RAPTOR is based exclusively on publicly available data. Net passes: The NBA also keeps track of the number of passes a player makes and receives during the game, and a positive passing differential is associated with a higher RAPM in and out of sample. There is so much […] The People of Portsmouth. Otherwise, RAPTOR projections are essentially the same as our previous projection system, CARMELO, which is described here at some length. What this means is that breakouts for young players (or declines for old players) mostly tend to “stick,” whereas you should expect more mean-reversion if a player shows a sharp apparent improvement or decline in mid-career. Contested rebounds are more valuable, although this makes less of a difference for offensive than defensive rebounds. On the other hand, a lot of rebounding has to do with being in the right place at the right time. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! The lower exponent in the playoffs reflects the fact that score effects are less profound in the playoffs. Green’s +15.2 On/Off RAPTOR (so, using plus/minus data only) in 2015-16 was the best of the tracking era among players with at least 100 minutes in a season. Specifically, we estimate that a steal increases the value of a subsequent offensive position by 0.2 points, and a blocked shot on which a team comes down with the rebound inbounds increases it by 0.11 points. And RAPTOR replacement level is set to -2.75 points per 100 possessions…. Before being used in the regression, all variables are adjusted relative to league average. For a 23-year-old player entering his fourth NBA season, for instance, the program assigns around 76 percent of the weight to the player’s most recent season. The upshot of this is that in RAPTOR, player assignments are probabilistic, which likely makes sense anyway given the amount of switching in today’s NBA. These types of players often have higher defensive RAPMs than their traditional defensive statistics would imply, and some of the reason for that is that they’ve been producing a lot of “hidden” defensive value by inducing offensive fouls. MLB Elo. For each game, they publish a point spread and win probability based on each… RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic. Offensive fouls drawn: The same holds for offensive fouls drawn. Penalty fouls drawn: Some additional benefits to drawing fouls are hard to measure via RAPM. FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on a variant of Elo ratings, which in turn have roots in ranking chess players. Differences between regular-season and playoff performance are. This is because, unlike in many other advanced stats, RAPTOR ratings tend to be fairly even across the five traditional positions. Abstract: As statistics and data science instructors, we often seek to use data in our courses that are rich, real, realistic, and relevant. Here’s one interesting comparison: Players make about 51 percent of 3-point attempts in the 3-point contest, when there is literally no defensive pressure (but there is time pressure). Even though players don’t really19 exert any control over whether their opponents make their free throws, free throws made nevertheless outperforms free throws attempted as a measure of the cost of committing fouls because players do exert some control over who they foul. They include the value of “and-one” free-throw attempts after made shots, but not free throws after missed shots, which are not officially recorded as shots by the NBA. It’s likely that these players hit truly wide-open shots — no defender closing out or threatening the shot in any way — at a rate greater than 44 percent. In addition, some very smart defenders (e.g., Green or Gobert) show indications of being selective about who they foul, based in part on which opponents make free throws at a high rate. Acknowledgements: Thanks to Ryan Davis, Steve Ilardi, Ben Taylor, Seth Partnow, Charles Rolph and Evan Wasch for their advice and assistance on RAPTOR. Conversely, players who played in worse leagues and who come from poorer countries start out slower but show steeper improvement. For these reasons, RAPM is not a great measure for use in a projection system, when our data needs are more time sensitive — e.g., if we want to see how much a player such as De’Aaron Fox improves from one season to the next. Namely, we removed the mean-reversion from RAPM; we also recalibrated RAPM such that the average score was zero for each regular season. Fastbreak turnovers committed: Just as generating turnovers that result in fast breaks help a team’s offense, committing turnovers hurts a team’s defense. Some players such as Hassan Whiteside are effective at producing their own rebounds but also allow opposing bigs to secure offensive rebounds at relatively high rates. On the other hand, in today’s NBA, any offensive rebound is rare, and therefore any offensive rebound is fairly valuable. The love affair with the Boston Celtics continues at FiveThirtyEight as the data wizards at the site who projected the Celtics the most likely winner of the 2020 NBA Championship consider All-Star swingman Jayson Tatum the best postseason player in the league. On the one hand, the value of an offensive rebound is intrinsically quite high: A team not only gets a new life on its possession after an offensive board, but it is also often in a premium position to score via a putback opportunity. Instead of inferring how far a team was ahead or behind based on its average final score, we calculate it directly by evaluating how far it was ahead or behind in an average possession throughout the season. We’re pretty excited about it. This is another way to account for the degree of difficulty of a player’s competition. FiveThirtyEight's soccer predictions calculate each team's chances of winning each match and the league title across 39 leagues. 538 introduced their new RAPTOR rating system today. The precise formula that RAPTOR uses to calculate WAR is as follows…, … where the WAR multiplier is 0.0005102 for the regular season and 0.0005262 in the playoffs.26. The “box” component of RAPTOR does something similar, only using player-tracking and play-by-play data in addition to traditional statistics. stream all rows, GraphQL API for nba-raptor/modern_RAPTOR_by_player, Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA, The Best NBA Players This Season, According To RAPTOR, Points above average per 100 possessions added by player on offense, based only on box score estimate, Points above average per 100 possessions added by player on defense, based only on box score estimate, Points above average per 100 possessions added by player, based only on box score estimate, Points above average per 100 possessions added by player on offense, based only on plus-minus data, Points above average per 100 possessions added by player on defense, based only on plus-minus data, Points above average per 100 possessions added by player, based only on plus-minus data, Points above average per 100 possessions added by player on offense, using both box and on-off components, Points above average per 100 possessions added by player on defense, using both box and on-off components, Points above average per 100 possessions added by player on both offense and defense, using both box and on-off components, Wins Above Replacement between regular season and playoffs, Wins Above Replacement for regular season, Predictive points above average per 100 possessions added by player on offense, Predictive points above average per 100 possessions added by player on defense, Predictive points above average per 100 possessions added by player on both offense and defense, Player impact on team possessions per 48 minutes. Fortunately, we estimate these effects to be small: Combined, they’re worth about 0.04 points per foul that’s not reflected by RAPM. We determined the respective weight assigned to “Box” and “On-Off” RAPTOR ratings by testing how well they predicted RAPM out of sample. The reason is that having superstar players makes a team considerably more likely to advance far in the postseason. ... FiveThirtyEight. Specifically, overall RAPTOR is equal to roughly 85 percent of “Box” RAPTOR, plus 21 percent of “On-Off” RAPTOR. Opposing bigs get notably fewer defensive rebounds when playing against Embiid than against most other centers, for example, both because he’s effective at boxing out and because he can sometimes draw them away from the basket with his scoring ability. Positional opponents’ defensive rebounds: RAPTOR attempts to figure out which player was matched up with which opponent on a given possession based on their positions as listed in our database. 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